The Reason Behind Florida’s Record Autumn Rainfall of 2026

The everyday 3:00pm thunderstorm that South Florida residents are all too familiar with is one of the most characteristic weather patterns of the state. But there may be a hidden driver causing chaotic and heavy rainfall this fall season. El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, is a natural climate pattern that begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During an El Niño event, surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than average, changing atmospheric circulation and shifting the position of the jet stream. Those changes can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific, including right here in Florida.